Article: Thursday, 17 April 2025
A new study has shown that people’s brain activity can forecast large-scale consumer behaviour. Researchers showed that activity detected in regions of the brain associated with early emotional responses can give better market forecasts than traditional market research methods. In short, it means that marketers could predict which products will succeed in the marketplace by scanning the brains of just a few dozen people. The research, Neuroforecasting reveals generalizable components of choice by associate professor Dr Alex Genevsky at Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University (RSM), Dr. Lester Chun Tong [JW1] and Prof. Brian Knutson of Stanford University, was published in PNAS Nexus, the sibling journal to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The results from conventional methods for studying and forecasting consumer choice – like surveys and behaviour studies with smaller numbers of people – often don’t hold true for larger markets. What people say in surveys or do in small groups for test marketing often don't translate to real-world market behaviour. But brain scans using Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (FMRI) – an established form of neuroforecasting – appear to overcome this limitation by tapping into emotional responses that are shared by a range of demographic groups. The researchers have been able to show they can improve forecasts by understanding the components of the process of choosing, and by looking at neural activity as that process happens.
The specific region of the brain they studied is the nucleus accumbens, a part of the ‘reward system’ that has a role in processing and reinforcing stimuli. It activates when we find something appealing, and it creates early emotional responses that are remarkably consistent in lots of people. These responses happen even before people consciously decide that they like something.
"Our brains react to appealing content in similar ways, even when our final decisions differ," explains Dr Genevsky. “These shared initial reactions can predict market behaviour better than what people say or do in test groups.”
In two experiments, the researchers measured brain activity in about 40 people as they made decisions about real crowdfunding requests, and about whether or not to continue watching videos. Brain activity and behaviour were then used to forecast similar choices in larger internet samples. The researchers then compared these neural responses with how thousands of actual internet users interacted with the same content.
The results were remarkable. Brain activity predicted market choices better than traditional surveys or observed behaviour, and these predictions remained accurate even when the test group was demographically different from the larger market. Only a small sample (fewer than 40 people) was needed to generate reliable forecasts.
"Think of it as how most people initially react similarly to the smell of fresh bread, even if they ultimately make different purchasing decisions," said Alex Genevsky. "Our immediate gut reactions are more universal than our final choices."
The researchers’ findings mean businesses can improve their market forecasts, product testing and audience insights:
The findings of Genevsky, Tong and Knutson have extended the existing knowledge of generalisable neuroforecasts. The findings have benefits not just for marketing but also for society – for example this method of producing forecasts can improve the accuracy of economic and social forecasts, and in that way, enhance how policy interventions and communications are selected, leading to more effective campaigns. Better insights into human choice could help organisations to craft their messages to particularly resonate with specific markets.
To read the full research paper, see Neuroforecasting reveals generalizable components of choice in PNAS Nexus.
Science Communication and Media Officer
Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University (RSM) is one of Europe’s top-ranked business schools. RSM provides ground-breaking research and education furthering excellence in all aspects of management and is based in the international port city of Rotterdam – a vital nexus of business, logistics and trade. RSM’s primary focus is on developing business leaders with international careers who can become a force for positive change by carrying their innovative mindset into a sustainable future. Our first-class range of bachelor, master, MBA, PhD and executive programmes encourage them to become to become critical, creative, caring and collaborative thinkers and doers.
